ATL 111-126 MIA, December 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat ATL 126-111, and MIA's shots were worth 138.1 points to ATL's 111.5.

ATL 111-126 MIA, December 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	85	92	95.1	19/21	16.4	111	111.5
MIA	104	109	123.9	17/18	14.2	126	138.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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