IND 94-111 MIL, December 23, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat IND 111-94, but IND's shots were worth 109.4 points to MIL's 103.9.

IND 94-111 MIL, December 23, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	81	74	83.5	20/33	25.9	94	109.4
MIL	82	94	85.0	17/24	19.0	111	103.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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