DEN 135-112 UTA, December 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat UTA 135-112, but UTA's shots were worth 123.6 points to DEN's 122.5.

DEN 135-112 UTA, December 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
DEN92116102.619/2519.9135122.5
UTA9696108.616/1915.0112123.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.