SAC 93-98 POR, December 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. POR beat SAC 98-93, but SAC's shots were worth 108.5 points to POR's 96.2.

SAC 93-98 POR, December 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
SAC877285.221/3123.493108.5
POR818177.317/2518.89896.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.