UTA 127-128 ORL, December 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat UTA 128-127, but UTA's shots were worth 130.6 points to ORL's 126.0.

UTA 127-128 ORL, December 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
UTA	105	103	106.2	24/30	24.4	127	130.6
ORL	96	105	100.4	23/33	25.5	128	126.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.