NOP 128-109 IND, December 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. NOP beat IND 128-109, but IND's shots were worth 126.5 points to NOP's 123.0.

NOP 128-109 IND, December 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	85	99	96.0	29/34	27.0	128	123.0
IND	94	88	104.4	21/30	22.0	109	126.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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