DEN 101-115 HOU, December 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat DEN 115-101, but DEN's shots were worth 119.2 points to HOU's 106.6.

DEN 101-115 HOU, December 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	92	82	100.3	19/23	18.9	101	119.2
HOU	77	97	87.9	18/23	18.7	115	106.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.