BOS 129-116 MIA, December 19, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BOS beat MIA 129-116, but MIA's shots were worth 122.4 points to BOS's 101.6.

BOS 129-116 MIA, December 19, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BOS	82	109	82.6	20/24	19.0	129	101.6
MIA	102	99	103.3	17/24	19.1	116	122.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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