PHX 99-98 GSW, December 18, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat GSW 99-98, but GSW's shots were worth 113.4 points to PHX's 110.4.

PHX 99-98 GSW, December 18, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	88	82	92.7	17/22	17.7	99	110.4
GSW	89	82	97.9	16/18	15.5	98	113.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.