DEN 126-115 ORL, December 18, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat ORL 126-115, but ORL's shots were worth 121.8 points to DEN's 107.8.

DEN 126-115 ORL, December 18, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	88	114	95.4	12/15	12.4	126	107.8
ORL	91	97	101.6	18/26	20.2	115	121.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.