DAL 116-114 DET, December 18, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DAL beat DET 116-114, but DET's shots were worth 152.6 points to DAL's 125.4.

DAL 116-114 DET, December 18, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DAL	89	85	96.8	31/36	28.5	116	125.4
DET	122	100	137.2	14/20	15.3	114	152.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.