NOP 133-128 HOU, December 18, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. NOP beat HOU 133-128, but HOU's shots were worth 138.3 points to NOP's 131.3.

NOP 133-128 HOU, December 18, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	97	109	108.7	24/28	22.7	133	131.3
HOU	107	110	118.8	18/27	19.4	128	138.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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