MIN 109-106 LAC, December 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat LAC 109-106, but LAC's shots were worth 114.2 points to MIN's 103.6.

MIN 109-106 LAC, December 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MIN687977.330/3426.2109103.6
LAC858993.417/2520.8106114.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.