HOU 117-98 PHX, December 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat PHX 117-98, but PHX's shots were worth 115.4 points to HOU's 96.8.

HOU 117-98 PHX, December 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	76	100	81.8	17/19	15.0	117	96.8
PHX	100	83	101.4	15/19	14.0	98	115.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.