ORL 112-114 SAS, December 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. SAS beat ORL 114-112, but ORL's shots were worth 120.7 points to SAS's 110.8.

ORL 112-114 SAS, December 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	99	99	105.9	13/19	14.8	112	120.7
SAS	91	97	92.2	17/24	18.6	114	110.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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