MIA 135-138 DET, November 29, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DET beat MIA 138-135, but MIA's shots were worth 131.0 points to DET's 123.0.

MIA 135-138 DET, November 29, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MIA8810299.933/3931.1135131.0
DET93121104.717/2318.4138123.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.