DEN 123-128 SAC, November 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. SAC beat DEN 128-123, and SAC's shots were worth 121.6 points to DEN's 120.6.

DEN 123-128 SAC, November 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	92	104	101.9	19/23	18.8	123	120.6
SAC	91	106	103.2	22/23	18.4	128	121.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.