POR 110-127 PHX, November 18, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat POR 127-110, but POR's shots were worth 127.6 points to PHX's 126.2.

POR 110-127 PHX, November 18, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
POR9794112.316/2015.3110127.6
PHX98108109.019/2217.1127126.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.