HOU 117-113 ORL, November 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat ORL 117-113, but ORL's shots were worth 119.8 points to HOU's 115.2.

HOU 117-113 ORL, November 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	100	92	93.1	25/29	22.1	117	115.2
ORL	91	88	92.4	25/34	27.5	113	119.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.