MIN 112-123 DEN, November 15, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat MIN 123-112, and DEN's shots were worth 117.9 points to MIN's 115.1.

MIN 112-123 DEN, November 15, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MIN889297.020/2318.2112115.1
DEN839287.631/3830.3123117.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.