MIA 136-131 POR, November 8, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat POR 136-131, but POR's shots were worth 143.4 points to MIA's 135.5.

MIA 136-131 POR, November 8, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	96	108	107.5	28/36	27.9	136	135.5
POR	109	112	124.9	19/23	18.4	131	143.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.