CLE 132-121 PHI, November 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat PHI 132-121, but PHI's shots were worth 127.6 points to CLE's 124.9.

CLE 132-121 PHI, November 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
CLE92116111.316/1713.6132124.9
PHI90100103.221/3024.4121127.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.