GSW 118-107 PHX, November 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. GSW beat PHX 118-107, but PHX's shots were worth 110.9 points to GSW's 106.8.

GSW 118-107 PHX, November 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
GSW	83	101	91.0	17/20	15.9	118	106.8
PHX	91	92	97.5	15/16	13.4	107	110.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.