ATL 127-112 ORL, November 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat ORL 127-112, but ORL's shots were worth 118.5 points to ATL's 114.0.

ATL 127-112 ORL, November 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	72	93	80.6	34/42	33.4	127	114.0
ORL	83	83	92.1	29/33	26.3	112	118.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.