No. LAL beat POR 123-115, but POR's shots were worth 124.7 points to LAL's 105.0.
| Team | FGA | FG points | FG expected | FT | FT expected | Points | Shots' worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 85 | 93 | 101.1 | 22/30 | 23.6 | 115 | 124.7 |
| LAL | 85 | 109 | 93.1 | 14/16 | 11.9 | 123 | 105.0 |
Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.
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