IND 114-109 GSW, November 1, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat GSW 114-109, but GSW's shots were worth 115.6 points to IND's 109.0.

IND 114-109 GSW, November 1, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	89	90	87.7	24/28	21.2	114	109.0
GSW	90	90	97.3	19/22	18.3	109	115.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.