GSW 98-79 LAC, October 28, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. GSW beat LAC 98-79, but LAC's shots were worth 98.5 points to GSW's 88.5.

GSW 98-79 LAC, October 28, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
GSW869585.13/43.49888.5
LAC826685.113/1613.47998.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.