DEN 133-111 PHX, October 25, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat PHX 133-111, and DEN's shots were worth 135.0 points to PHX's 113.7.

DEN 133-111 PHX, October 25, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	84	95	101.5	38/42	33.5	133	135.0
PHX	88	93	96.7	18/22	17.0	111	113.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.