HOU 111-115 DET, October 24, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DET beat HOU 115-111, but HOU's shots were worth 121.6 points to DET's 117.1.

HOU 111-115 DET, October 24, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	83	74	84.3	37/48	37.3	111	121.6
DET	90	100	99.1	15/23	17.9	115	117.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.