POR 114-118 MIN, October 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat POR 118-114, but POR's shots were worth 129.6 points to MIN's 114.5.

POR 114-118 MIN, October 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	90	85	102.4	29/35	27.2	114	129.6
MIN	86	99	96.8	19/24	17.7	118	114.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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