UTA 129-108 LAC, October 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. UTA beat LAC 129-108, but LAC's shots were worth 111.4 points to UTA's 109.0.

UTA 129-108 LAC, October 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
UTA8711393.316/2015.8129109.0
LAC889294.516/2116.9108111.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.