ORL 125-121 MIA, October 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. ORL beat MIA 125-121, and ORL's shots were worth 124.7 points to MIA's 117.8.

ORL 125-121 MIA, October 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	90	96	96.3	29/35	28.4	125	124.7
MIA	91	100	96.7	21/27	21.1	121	117.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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