MIA 106-103 MIL, November 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat MIL 106-103, but MIL's shots were worth 111.8 points to MIA's 104.9.

MIA 106-103 MIL, November 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	85	88	88.5	18/20	16.4	106	104.9
MIL	95	94	101.2	9/14	10.5	103	111.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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