HOU 109-112 DEN, November 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat HOU 112-109, but HOU's shots were worth 118.1 points to DEN's 99.7.

HOU 109-112 DEN, November 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	93	96	102.8	13/20	15.4	109	118.1
DEN	76	91	77.8	21/27	21.9	112	99.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.