PHX 114-113 MIN, November 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat MIN 114-113, but MIN's shots were worth 109.6 points to PHX's 101.5.

PHX 114-113 MIN, November 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	81	92	78.2	22/29	23.3	114	101.5
MIN	86	90	84.4	23/33	25.2	113	109.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.