CHI 107-143 MIA, November 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat CHI 143-107, and MIA's shots were worth 151.1 points to CHI's 128.3.

CHI 107-143 MIA, November 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	90	86	106.2	21/28	22.0	107	128.3
MIA	100	108	116.7	35/44	34.4	143	151.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.