DET 104-103 BOS, January 19, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. DET beat BOS 104-103, but BOS's shots were worth 106.5 points to DET's 105.7.

DET 104-103 BOS, January 19, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
DET888787.817/2317.9104105.7
BOS837982.924/3023.6103106.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.