CLE 104-136 OKC, January 19, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. OKC beat CLE 136-104, but CLE's shots were worth 134.6 points to OKC's 120.1.

CLE 104-136 OKC, January 19, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CLE	91	76	107.0	28/35	27.6	104	134.6
OKC	90	123	103.8	13/20	16.2	136	120.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.