DEN 142-138 MIN, December 25, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat MIN 142-138, but MIN's shots were worth 134.4 points to DEN's 127.1.

DEN 142-138 MIN, December 25, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	101	113	100.9	29/32	26.3	142	127.1
MIN	104	114	111.1	24/30	23.3	138	134.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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