SAC 129-130 DEN, December 16, 2024

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat SAC 130-129, and DEN's shots were worth 121.4 points to SAC's 119.8.

SAC 129-130 DEN, December 16, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
SAC	102	110	103.4	19/20	16.4	129	119.8
DEN	102	112	102.9	18/24	18.5	130	121.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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