DET 125-124 MIA, December 16, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. DET beat MIA 125-124, but MIA's shots were worth 118.7 points to DET's 113.6.

DET 125-124 MIA, December 16, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DET	90	108	95.9	17/23	17.7	125	113.6
MIA	99	102	99.1	22/24	19.6	124	118.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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