MIL 114-109 ORL, December 10, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat ORL 114-109, but ORL's shots were worth 120.0 points to MIL's 109.8.

MIL 114-109 ORL, December 10, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	77	95	90.8	19/25	19.0	114	109.8
ORL	93	88	98.5	21/27	21.5	109	120.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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