ATL 117-105 ORL, April 13, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat ORL 117-105, but ORL's shots were worth 112.4 points to ATL's 110.2.

ATL 117-105 ORL, April 13, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	88	111	102.8	6/10	7.3	117	110.2
ORL	88	95	101.3	10/15	11.1	105	112.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.