NOP 104-153 MIA, April 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat NOP 153-104, and MIA's shots were worth 131.9 points to NOP's 119.2.

NOP 104-153 MIA, April 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	95	90	104.0	14/20	15.2	104	119.2
MIA	104	136	114.6	17/22	17.3	153	131.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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