IND 115-129 ORL, April 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat IND 129-115, but IND's shots were worth 123.8 points to ORL's 106.4.

IND 115-129 ORL, April 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	89	92	96.0	23/35	27.8	115	123.8
ORL	85	111	91.0	18/21	15.5	129	106.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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