UTA 133-126 POR, April 9, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. UTA beat POR 133-126, but POR's shots were worth 120.2 points to UTA's 115.5.

UTA 133-126 POR, April 9, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
UTA	98	115	98.3	18/22	17.2	133	115.5
POR	104	107	99.2	19/28	21.0	126	120.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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