CHI 119-111 MIA, April 9, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat MIA 119-111, but MIA's shots were worth 103.0 points to CHI's 99.8.

CHI 119-111 MIA, April 9, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	89	106	88.7	13/13	11.0	119	99.8
MIA	92	100	89.9	11/17	13.1	111	103.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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