MIA 117-105 PHI, April 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat PHI 117-105, but PHI's shots were worth 117.1 points to MIA's 111.4.

MIA 117-105 PHI, April 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	89	106	99.9	11/15	11.5	117	111.4
PHI	88	88	97.8	17/25	19.3	105	117.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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