MIA 115-121 MIL, April 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIL beat MIA 121-115, and MIL's shots were worth 128.1 points to MIA's 119.8.

MIA 115-121 MIL, April 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	102	101	107.8	14/16	12.0	115	119.8
MIL	87	98	107.6	23/29	20.6	121	128.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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