PHI 109-114 MIN, April 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat PHI 114-109, but PHI's shots were worth 117.3 points to MIN's 113.7.

PHI 109-114 MIN, April 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHI	91	100	105.7	9/15	11.6	109	117.3
MIN	81	93	90.8	21/29	22.9	114	113.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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